Hume, C, Kalenchuk, K & Dadashzadeh, N 2024, 'Hazard identification and mitigation using numerical modelling and seismic data analyses in an underground gold mine', in P Andrieux & D Cumming-Potvin (eds), Deep Mining 2024: Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Deep and High Stress Mining, pp. 311-326, https://doi.org/10.36487/ACG_repo/2465_15
(https://papers.acg.uwa.edu.au/p/2465_15_Hume/)
Abstract: The management of risk associated with mine-induced stress and associated ground response in underground mines is a necessary component for ensuring the safety of underground mining personnel as well as the economic viability of underground ore recovery. Numerical models can be very powerful methods for investigating and evaluating geomechanical hazards associated with induced stress in underground mines. When effectively calibrated, numerical models can provide the means for reliable engineered predictions of ground reaction in response to future mining. Seismic monitoring provides essential data to characterise the seismogenic rock mass response and also provides the basis for quantitative model calibration as well as domain-based analyses of seismic hazard spatially throughout a mine and temporally during mining activities. This paper presents a case study of a mine where adverse seismicity and rockbursting halted production in a critical mining zone in 2023. Numerical modelling and seismic data interpretations were then relied upon for event back-analyses and the development of tactical and strategic risk mitigation measures for managing potential future seismic hazards. A discussion of numerical model calibration is presented, with numerical outputs generated by the simulation of historical mining activity systematically reconciled against the available seismic history record. The process involved statistical evaluation of numerical outputs for seismogenic geotechnical domains as well as induced stress tensors evaluated against seismic source mechanisms. The calibrated numerical model is then used to understand geomechanical hazards associated with future mining plans.

Keywords: numerical modelling, model calibration, seismic data analysis, mine-induced stress, underground mining, case study