Bowden, M, Godden, D & Finucane, SJ 2025, 'Changing of the guard: Navigating the post-mining transition using the Three Horizons framework', in S Knutsson, AB Fourie & M Tibbett (eds), Mine Closure 2025: Proceedings of the 18th International Conference on Mine Closure, Australian Centre for Geomechanics, Perth, pp. 1-16, https://doi.org/10.36487/ACG_repo/2515_34
(https://papers.acg.uwa.edu.au/p/2515_34_Godden/)
Abstract: As the practice of mine closure continues to evolve globally, transition of former mines to other land uses is becoming more common. To provide confidence that proponents are planning effectively for post-mining transition, they are usually expected to define and sometimes ‘lock in’ the proposed post-mining land use (PMLU) as part of early project approvals. However, planning over long-term horizons is difficult as it involves inherent uncertainty, and the PMLU may need to be modified to reflect changes in land capability, regulatory frameworks, stakeholder profiles, community needs and expectations, and other factors. Therefore, it can be difficult to envision PMLUs while withstanding the ‘revolving door’ of stakeholders that occurs over a long mine life. Consequently, effective transition planning requires the use of suitable participatory and adaptive practices. Further, proponents need to be creative and innovative in engaging with communities to envision and plan for long-term futures.
This paper explores application of Sharpe’s Three Horizons framework to mine closure and transition planning. This framework provides a clear process to guide strategic conversations with communities and other stakeholders that facilitate successful social transitions. It helps to articulate a shared understanding of the current situation as well as a vision for the future, and to identify pathways of transition that unfold over time. The process helps closure practitioners engage with the complexities and uncertainties of planning for social transition as mines approach and implement closure, explore and integrate key dilemmas that arise, understand and constructively work with different stakeholder values and perspectives, and identify novel and creative solutions to complex problems.
Developed in the field of futures and foresight and applied in many contexts including decarbonisation of the mining industry, this framework represents exciting new thinking in the mine closure space.

Keywords: social values, socio-economic transitioning, social outcomes, community readiness, stakeholder engagement, post-mining land use, envisioning, futures thinking