Beck, D, Reusch, F & Arndt, S 2007, 'Estimating the Probabaility of Mining-Induced Seismic Events using Mine-Scale, Inelastic Numerical Models', in Y Potvin (ed.), Deep Mining 2007: Proceedings of the Fourth International Seminar on Deep and High Stress Mining, Australian Centre for Geomechanics, Perth, pp. 31-41, https://doi.org/10.36487/ACG_repo/711_2
(https://papers.acg.uwa.edu.au/p/711_2_Beck/)
Abstract: Detailed, mine-scale non-linear numerical models have been calibrated using observations of displacement 
and damage at three deep mines. The calibrated models were then used to investigate the correlation 
between Dissipated Plastic Energy (DPE) and seismic event probability. A strong, non-linear relation 
between DPE and event probability was observed that describes the development, peak, and decline in 
seismicity as rock is deformed. The correlations are present for events at all magnitudes, and the where 
sufficient data was available for a comparison, a relation between DPE and event probability consistent with 
the relation between event magnitude and frequency described by the Gutenberg Richter equation was found. 
The application of DPE analysis during the design and sequencing of mines will allow a more quantitative 
description of seismic hazards than is currently available.