Authors: Elkington,TJ; Grobler,FC

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Elkington,TJ & Grobler,FC 2011, 'Robust mine planning', in Y Potvin (ed.), Strategic versus Tactical 2011: Proceedings of the Fourth International Seminar on Strategic versus Tactical Approaches in Mining, Australian Centre for Geomechanics, Perth, pp. 11-19,

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Financial risk analysis is often conducted at the end of a feasibility study, after a project strategy has already been selected. Thus, risk (quantitatively at least) and uncertainty has limited influence in the decision making process. This paper proposes a simple and efficient process to consider risk in the decision making (or options selection) phase of a study. In this way, “robust” strategies can be selected: strategies that perform well under a wide range of conditions. This is in contrast to the typical approach of “optimising” a project based on a single set of point estimates (assumptions) of the future, without consideration of inherent uncertainty. Three case studies show some analyses that can be adopted to consider project robustness.

Elkington, T., Grobler, F. and Myers, P. (2010) Supporting Robust Strategic Underground Mine Decision-Making, Proceedings of CIM 2010, Vancouver, Canada, May 2010.
Grobler, F., Elkington, T. and Rendu, J.M. (2011) Robust decision making: Application to Mine Planning under Price Uncertainty, in Proceedings of APCOM 35, Wollongong, Australia, September 2011 (in print).

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