Authors: Jarufe, J; Wesseloo, J; Potvin, Y; Dhanér, C

Open access courtesy of:

This paper is hosted with the kind permission of the Universidad de Chile, Eighth International Conference & Exhibition on Mass Mining, 2020.


Cite As:
Jarufe, J, Wesseloo, J, Potvin, Y & Dhanér, C 2020, 'Numerical modelling calculation of probabilistic seismic hazard in cave mining', in R Castro, F Báez & K Suzuki (eds), MassMin 2020: Proceedings of the Eighth International Conference & Exhibition on Mass Mining, University of Chile, Santiago, pp. 1225-1234,

Download citation as:   ris   bibtex   endnote   text   Zotero

Numerical modelling has been used for more than 30 years to assess the seismic potential in underground excavations. However, the outcome from modelling tools rarely considers the probabilistic nature of seismic hazards. This paper presents a method to generate a distribution of synthetic seismic data based on numerical modelling results. The distribution of this data follows an exponential model and can be utilized to perform statistical analysis of the largest magnitudes expected from the rockmass deformation due to underground excavations. This method is illustrated with a case study in a caving mine where the seismic potential is evaluated using a numerical model back-analysis exercise, resulting in the calculation of the exceedance probability of any seismic-event magnitude through the modelled period. The proposed method has an advantage over other methods that estimate seismic hazard because it implicitly calculates the statistical distribution of seismic events to obtain the exceedance probability of the largest event.

Aki, K & Richards, P 2002, ‘Quantitative Seismology’, Second Edition, University, Science Books, California.
Aki, K 1984, 'Asperities, barriers, characteristic earthquakes and strong motion prediction', Journal of Geophysical Research, 89(B), 5867–5872,.
Beck, DA Levkovitch, V & Simser, B 2012, ‘Explicit discontinuum simulation for probabilistic forecasting of fault slip and rockmass seismic potential’, In Deep and High Stress Mining, The Australian Centre for Geomechanics.
Beck, DA & Brady, BHG 2001, ‘Evaluation and application of controlling parameters for seismic events in hard-rock mines’, International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences. Editorial reference: 2002/002093.
Beck, D, 2000, 'A method for Engineering Management of Induced Seismicity in Deep-Level Hard Rock Mining', Ph.D. Thesis, University of Queensland, Australia (unpublished).
Cook, NGW 1976, 'Seismicity induced by mining'. Engineering Geology, vol 10, pp. 99- 122.
Gibowicz, SJ & Kijko, A 1994, ‘An Introduction to Mining Seismology’, San Diego: Academic Press, ISBN: 0-12-282120-3.
Gutenberg, B & Richter, CF 1944, 'Frequency of earthquakes in California', Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, vol. 34, 185-188.
Harris, PH & Wesseloo, J 2015, ‘mXrap software’, version 5, Australian Centre for Geomechanics, The University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australia, .
Hanks, TC, & Kanamori H 1979, 'A moment magnitude scale', Journal of Geophysical Research, 84, 5, 2348 - 2350, 9B0059, .
Hudyma, M 2010, ‘Applied Mine Seismology Concepts and Techniques’, Technical notes for ENGR 5356- mine Seismic Monitoring Systems, Laurentian University.
Jaeger, JC & Cook, NGW 1979, ‘Fundamentals of Rock Mechanics 3rd ed’, London: Chapman and Hall, ISBN: 0-412-22010-5.
Jarufe Troncoso, J, Potvin, Y & Wesseloo, J 2012, 'Application of the limit equilibrium strength to the seismic assessment of shear related seismicity', Presented at the Sixth International Seminar on Deep and High Stress Mining, pp. 389–400, .
Larsson, K 2004, 'Mining Induced Seismicity in Sweden', Licenciate Thesis, Luleå University of technology.
LKAB 2020, 'End Year Report 2019', LKAB Press Reports 2019.
Ortlepp, WD & Stacey, TR 1994, 'Rockburst Mechanisms in Tunnels and Shafts. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology', vol 9, no. 1, pp 59-65
Potvin, Y, Jarufe, J & Wesseloo, J 2010, 'Interpretation of seismic data and numerical modelling of fault reactivation at El Teniente, Reservas Norte sector', Mining Technology. vol. 119, pp. 175-181, .
Ryder, JA 1988, 'Excess shear stress in the assessment of geologically hazardous situations'. Journal of the South African Institute of Mining and Metallurgy, vol 88, no.1, pp 27-39.
Sjöberg, J, Perman, F, Quinteiro, C, Malmgren, L, Dahnér-Lindkvist, C & Boskovic, M 2012, 'Numerical Analysis of Alternative Mining Sequences to minimize Potential for Fault Slip Rockbursting', Mining Technology vol. 121, no.4, pp. 226-235.
Spottiswoode, SM & Miller, AM 2002, 'A Methodology and Computer Program for Applying Improved, Inelastic ERR for the Design of Mine Layouts in Planar Rifts', SIMRAC Final Project Report, GAP 772.
Wesseloo, J 2020, 'Addressing some misconceptions regarding seismic hazard assessment in mines', The Southern African Institute of Mining and Metallurgy, vol 120, pp. 67-80.
Wesseloo, J, 2018, ‘The Spatial Assessment of the Current Seismic Hazard State for Hard Rock Underground Mines’, Rock Mech Rock Eng 51, 1839–1862, .
Woldemedhin, B, & Mwagalanyi, H 2010, 'Investigation of Rock-fall and Support Damage Induced by Seismic Motion at Kiirunavaara Mine', Master of Science in Engineering Technology, Lulea University of Technology.

© Copyright 2024, Australian Centre for Geomechanics (ACG), The University of Western Australia. All rights reserved.
View copyright/legal information
Please direct any queries or error reports to