Assessment of extreme precipitation events under climate change scenarios in search of a resilient closure design

Authors: Loyola, C; Toro, I; González, R; Robles, S Download Paper Open access courtesy of:

DOI https://doi.org/10.36487/ACG_repo/2415_71

Cite As:
Loyola, C, Toro, I, González, R & Robles, S 2024, 'Assessment of extreme precipitation events under climate change scenarios in search of a resilient closure design ', in AB Fourie, M Tibbett & G Boggs (eds), Mine Closure 2024: Proceedings of the 17th International Conference on Mine Closure, Australian Centre for Geomechanics, Perth, pp. 993-1004, https://doi.org/10.36487/ACG_repo/2415_71



Abstract:
When planning the closure of a mining site multiple considerations must be addressed. Along with other factors it is essential to consider future climate conditions that will affect the study area. According to projections from global climate change models (GCM), future conditions are expected to be more extreme compared to the current ones. There are multiple factors that contribute to a significant level of uncertainty regarding the future, including the large number of GCMs, different scenarios related to trajectories of CO2 concentrations and the potential behaviour of humanity regarding future actions. The study examines the impact of climate change on extreme precipitation events in the long term and addresses its uncertainty. Future extreme precipitation is often used as input for the design of closure water management works, and for verification of the responses of numerous critical infrastructures at mining sites, with the aim of increasing infrastructure resilience at the time of mine closure. The applied approach allows decision-making to adapt to the different risk levels of each project while identifying future extreme precipitation events when planning for mine closure. Results are presented for three mining operations, located in Brazil, Peru and Chile, where high uncertainty is observed for extreme precipitation projections. Consequently, for design/verification purposes it is recommended that the 75th or 85th percentile be considered for the most conservative shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios, according to the projections of the GCMs, the historical climate at the site and the risk level of each project.

Keywords: climate change, extreme precipitation, uncertainty, resilient design

References: