Establishing relations between seismic activity and production

Authors: Birch, DJ; Rigby, A; Simanjuntak, K; Mardiansyah, F; Bayar, E Download Paper

Cite As:
Birch, DJ, Rigby, A, Simanjuntak, K, Mardiansyah, F & Bayar, E 2024, 'Establishing relations between seismic activity and production', in Daniel Johansson & Håkan Schunnesson (eds), MassMin 2024: Proceedings of the International Conference & Exhibition on Mass Mining, Luleå University of Technology, Luleå, pp. 1634-1645.



Abstract:
Micro-seismic activity at a mine is typically strongly controlled by production activity. It is possible to quantify this relation between production and seismicity via a statistical model, which provides a potential means for managing the seismic response to future mining. This was demonstrated by establishing models relating simple parameters of production (tonnes fired and tonnes bogged) to parameters of the seismic response (event count and cumulative potency) at a block caving mine. Using these simple production parameters alone omits some important factors (such as rock mass condition, mining configuration, etc), and so the fit to the seismic response is naturally somewhat limited. We demonstrate that this fit can be improved by including an auto-regressive term into the model, which comes at the cost of limiting the model’s forecasting horizon.