Navigating uncertainty: towards resilient cost estimation in mine closure

Authors: Bloemhof, R; Bothma, J

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DOI https://doi.org/10.36487/ACG_repo/2515_31

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Bloemhof, R & Bothma, J 2025, 'Navigating uncertainty: towards resilient cost estimation in mine closure ', in S Knutsson, AB Fourie & M Tibbett (eds), Mine Closure 2025: Proceedings of the 18th International Conference on Mine Closure, Australian Centre for Geomechanics, Perth, pp. 1-10, https://doi.org/10.36487/ACG_repo/2515_31

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Abstract:
Mine closure has evolved from a linear, end-of-life engineering task into a dynamic, multidisciplinary process integrated across the mining lifecycle. The increasing complexity of closure, driven by regulatory changes, socio-economic volatility, stakeholder expectations and climate change, has rendered traditional cost estimation models inadequate. This paper advocates for a resilient, adaptive approach to mine closure costing, positioning it as a strategic function capable of managing uncertainty and unlocking long-term value. We propose a shift from deterministic, engineering-centric cost estimation methods to adaptive, lifecyclealigned models. By integrating probabilistic techniques, scenario planning and stakeholder engagement, mining companies can reduce cost uncertainty and improve transparency to support more informed decision-making. Key recommendations for practitioners and stakeholders emphasise the use of risk-informed methodologies, the mainstreaming of progressive closure, and the integration of social transition and land use considerations into cost estimates. Ultimately, this paper argues that embracing uncertainty in cost estimation not only achieves compliance but fosters regenerative and community-aligned closure strategies, positioning mine closure as an opportunity for building resilience and legacy.

Keywords: mine closure, cost estimation, uncertainty, probabilistic techniques, scenario planning, resilience, regenerative strategies, community alignment

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