Authors: de Beer, W; Smith-Boughner, L; Viegas, G; Bosman, K; Angus, D

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de Beer, W, Smith-Boughner, L, Viegas, G, Bosman, K & Angus, D 2018, 'Towards physics-based hazard assessment tools for developing blanket re-entry rules', in Y Potvin & J Jakubec (eds), Caving 2018: Proceedings of the Fourth International Symposium on Block and Sublevel Caving, Australian Centre for Geomechanics, Perth, pp. 545-552,

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Hazard assessment tools are often classified as either purely probabilistic or deterministic. Probabilistic assessments utilise the statistics of past occurrences to attempt a forecast, with suitable confidence levels, of future occurrences in a given spatial volume and time frame. Purely deterministic methods use constitutive equations, equations of state, or equations of motion to extrapolate future behaviour. In this paper, we report on initial work towards deterministic assessments by compiling the statistics of the behaviour of physical variables based on seismic source parameters, and rock mass stress state and condition inferred from seismic velocities for comparison to the occurrence of significant events and/or damage at particular locations in mines. At this stage, we only report on whether patterns and statistics may exist.

Keywords: passive seismic tomography, seismic velocity, seismic time series

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